Are We Going to See More Airline Regulation Changes in 2025?

January 21, 2025

If you’re unsure of what type of airline regulatory changes we can expect to see in 2025, you’re far from alone. 

Right now, the variety of guesses from industry experts ranges all the way from a) No Changes, b) Moderate Changes, or c) Drastic/Sweeping Changes.

Not only are we facing a new year with new challenges, but we’re also seeing a new government. The Joe Biden administration had a mission to shake things up in the airline sector, specifically targeting ‘junk fees’ and automatic refunds to protect consumers. There is a general feeling that the Trump administration may dial things back to be more airline-friendly. However, many of Biden’s changes received a lot of support from both the left and the right.

The year 2024 actually saw Washington flexing a lot of muscle across the airline sector with things like:

  • The changes to junk fees and automatic refunds
  • Two different investigations into airline loyalty programs 
  • The blocking of the JetBlue-Spirit merger

That being said, we could see all 3 of these things reversed in 2025– or at least revisited.

Here’s why.

Junk Fees and Automatic Refunds

Hidden fees that only appear at the last checkout screen are not exclusive to the airline sector. Any consumer who’s tried to book an Airbnb or buy concert tickets has been frustrated by these fees. However, the airline sector is the only one that’s been targeted by the federal government (so far).

President Biden first promised to crack down on junk fees in his State of the Union Address in 2023, and we saw the Department of Justice introduce new regulations in March of 2024.

These new regulations mandated that:

  • Airlines have to disclose their fees for certain services upfront.
  • Airlines have to issue automatic refunds (without the customer having to ask) in the event that: 
    1. A flight is significantly delayed, or… 
    2. A fight is canceled and/or… 
    3. The customer turns down a rebooked flight. 

This was clearly a very popular concept among consumers, and predictably less so among the major airlines. So much so that Airlines for America joined forces with American, Delta, United, JetBlue, and Hawaiian to sue in an attempt to block the rule, with the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeal ruling in their favor in the summer of 2024. 

Meanwhile, automatic refunds remain the law (for now), as they became a part of FAA Reauthorization, which was passed by Congress with strong support from both sides of the aisle.

What Will 2025 Hold for Fees and Refunds?

This one is particularly difficult to predict.

We’ve already seen the regulations on junk fees introduced and repealed in the same year. Meanwhile, the automatic refunds initiative appeared to be something that both Republicans and Democrats could agree on. This could be a sign that both sides know that voters hate these fees… or simply a sign that most politicians still have to take commercial flights.

On the other hand, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian recently predicted that Trump’s stance on regulations could be “a breath of fresh air.” And we need to remember that the Trump administration’s first term saw the end of a rule that forced airlines to disclose baggage fees.

The odds are good that the new administration will be more airline-friendly than the previous, but we will have to wait to see.

Airline/Credit Card Loyalty Programs

For years, consumers have complained that airline loyalty points are often frustrating to use. But are airlines engaging in “unfair, deceptive, or noncompetitive practices” in the way they offer their points? That was the big question last year.

In September of 2024, we saw the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) launching a formal inquiry into the U.S’ largest airline rewards program. This was on the heels of The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) launching its own investigation into broader credit card rewards programs, which included co-branded airline credit cards.

We have yet to see the results of the DOT’s inquiry. However, CFPB recently issued a circular to other law enforcement agencies, warning that “some credit card companies operating rewards programs may be breaking the law, including by illegally devaluing rewards points and airline miles.” 

It’s also important to know that while the CFPB is an influential watchdog agency, they’re not a branch of the government that can pass new laws. 

What Will 2025 Hold for Airline Loyalty Programs?

We will have to see what the DOT’s inquiry reveals. However, the CFPB’s findings do seem to point to some sort of new regulations being put in place. 

However, it’s also important to know that the very future of the CFPB is in jeopardy. As of the time of this blog’s publishing, President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce who will run the CFPB next year. Meanwhile, Trump’s new co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, has suggested the US should abolish the agency completely. 

This means we can probably expect several sweeping changes and various rollbacks for the CFPB in 2025… Or possibly one very big change.

Major Airline Mergers

2023 was also the year we saw JetBlue and Spirit Airlines announce a $3.8 billion merger, only to have a Federal Judge block that merger in early 2024 and President Biden calling that ruling, “a victory for consumers everywhere who want lower prices and more choices.” This was eventually followed by Spirit Airlines announcing that they were entering Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November of the same year.

This was seen by many as a step towards protecting the consumer, but once again many are predicting that the new government will be more airline-friendly, which means they may be more merger-friendly.

What Will 2025 Hold for Major Airline Mergers?

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess, and everyone IS guessing as rumors swirl around the airline sector.

We’ve already seen JetBlue founder David Neeleman publically state that he was confident that we will see a Spirit-Frontier merger at some point in 2025. Elsewhere, both American and JetBlue have made allusions to reviving the Northeast Alliance that the Biden administration had previously killed in May of 2023.

Most critics feel that the next big airline merger, whomever it may involve, will likely go through without any interference from the new government.

What Does 2025 Have in Store for Tour Operators?

This blog has focused on how potential regulatory changes will impact major companies and major airlines. But what about smaller multi-day tour bookers? What will their next 12 months look like? 

In 2024, we saw the younger Gen Z generation start to enter the workforce and start to earn their own disposable income—and they’ve shown that they want to spend that money on travel. In fact, they’re spending more money per day on their trips than Gen Xers, Millennials, or Boomers. However, the challenge facing small travel agents and tour bookers is that they’re trying to serve a younger demographic with aging technology.

If you would like to stay on top of these and other trends, feel free to bookmark our blog and check back often!

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What other changes can we expect to see in 2025? Click the box below to download our free whitepaper! It’s our gift to you, and our way of trying to set you up for success in the new year! Make 2025 your best year ever!